Mike’s Morning Brief – August 22, 2018

What’s going on in the world…

Market opens in the red after reaching a fresh, all-time high on the S&P yesterday. The correction which began in January is over. But the volatility is certainly not. Also of significance, this Bull Market which began in March of 2009 is now the longest in American history. It has surpassed the Dotcom Bull of the 1990’s in length. It still trails it in size. This Bull is up 330% during its 9+ year run. The Dotcom Bull was up 417%. No Bull has ever reached its 10th birthday. This Bull has a very strong chance of breaking that trend. But it has to deal with more geopolitical risk, something that it has become used to as it’s been the case its whole life. Yesterday was a bad day for President Trump. But the Market just doesn’t seem to care. His former campaign manager Paul Manafort and his former lawyer and “fix-it guy” Michael Cohen both were found guilty yesterday, and Cohen implicated the President in his plea. Things were extremely complicated for President Trump. It just got much, much more so. But business keeps moving forward. Rumors are circulating that a trade deal with Mexico is near, and a handshake is already in place. Chinese trade leaders are in Washington to renew talks although expectations are near zero for any deal to be consummated this week. News flow will be a constant current and perhaps Market moving as trade is so critical to global growth, and the Market cares. The Fed Minutes will be released today. There’s also Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony in Jackson Hole at the end of the week. That’s going to be important. Rates keep dropping however, as does the Dollar. That is new. Oil and Gold are catching a bid this week. They’ve both been quite weak of late. Rotation is the theme. Volatility is the result. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see this Market erase the losses and actually close positive today. Keep those belts buckled.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier

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