Mike’s Morning Brief – December 12, 2018

What’s going on in the world…

Market opens sharply higher again, in the wake of more Chinese concessions on trade. We’ve seen this before, but real traction seems to be made. Confidence is building by a report that Chinese officials are drafting a plan that would give foreign companies more access to local markets. It’s being reported that the Made in China 2025 plan is getting a revision. This seems highly improbable, but sounds very positive as it applies to global relations and the future of trade. Watch what they do, not what they say. President Trump announced that China was buying a “tremendous amount” of U.S. soybeans and that trade talks with Beijing were already underway by telephone. He also said it would be a mistake if the Fed raises rates when it meets next week, but called Chair Jerome Powell “a good man.” The Fed meets next week. Expectations for a hike were near 100% three weeks ago. Today it’s 78.4%. British Prime Minister Theresa May is fighting for her job as well as Brexit, with a vote today. Europe continues to be a mess, and it’s getting worse with France showing vulnerabilities. Crude Oil is jumping on trade talks and a big drawdown. Interest rates are up too while the Dollar is falling in early trading. There is so much going on which contributes to this volatile price action. Seeing green on the screen is always soothing, but the whipsaw action brings red to green back to red with lightning speed. The October lows were undercut on Monday, but the reversal higher is a confidence builder. Bulls need to build on it. The Bears are still in control, for now. If a Santa Rally is coming, it needs to accelerate. Keep those belts buckled. This is a very difficult Market.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier

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