Mike’s Morning Brief – February 20, 2019

By February 20, 2019 Mike's Morning Brief

What’s going on in the world…

Market opens flattish ahead of the Fed Minutes release. It’s an important one. The Federal Reserve Open Committee switched gears fairly dramatically at their January meeting, suggesting a more accommodative approach to monetary policy in response to the global economic slowdown and financial stress from December. Digging into their thinking from the meeting will help get a sense of where they might be headed with rates and QT. The Fed Balance sheet and flat yield curve are a key focus. The fact remains, the Fed is still a major driver of stock prices. The same issues continue to overhang without clear resolution. Optimism keeps building for some sort of deal on trade, with talks continuing in Washington. Germany seems to be ok with Chinese telecom for its 5G buildout, undermining the US and other nation’s pushback. Brexit keeps walking backwards it appears, with no good option in sight. March 29 is the fateful day which nobody seems prepared for. There’s a lot of green on the screen this morning. Stocks are slightly higher. The Dollar is green. Gold continues to catch a bid. Rates are higher. Oil is a standout decliner, but not by much. The VIX is back to lows not seen since October. Complacency seems to be back. Look out. The set up for a sell-off seems ripe.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier