Mike’s Morning Brief – March 18, 2020

What’s going on in the world…

Market opens sharply lower, giving up all of yesterday’s gains. The Futures were limit-down again overnight. The rally yesterday was not convincing. Utilities were up 13%, leading the charge. REIT’s were next. The growthy and more economically cyclical areas like Tech and Industrials and Financials lagged. The bear Market price action has been relentless. The Dow has swung 1,000 points in both directions for the last seven trading days. The S&P has swung 4% every one of those days. That has never happened before. There were six consecutive 4% swings in 1929. That is stunning. We are going to get yet another one today. The number of coronavirus cases continues to spread, with over 200k around the world. It’s too early to see through the problems to gain confidence that things will sustainably recover on the other side. How bad and how long remains the question for pretty much everything. The Market hates uncertainty. One thing is certain: recession is inevitable, if not already here. Boeing is struggling for survival. A bailout is likely. A small positive was FedEx beating on revenues and seeing slight signs of improvement in China. The Canadian border has been closed for travel, but trade will continue. Biden had another big night and Bernie is apparently assessing his future plans. Stocks are lower. Bonds are lower as the 10-Year remains above 1%. The curve is steepening a bit. The Dollar is over $100 for the first time in years. Oil and Gold are lower.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier

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