Mike’s Morning Brief – November 1, 2017

Mike Frazier portrait headshot

Mike’s Morning Brief: A fast-break rundown of what’s going on.

Market opens higher again, despite a tragic terror attack in New York City.  These are becoming far too common.  The Market seems to have developed an immunity to such things now.   It’s the world we live in.  What’s worse, it’s becoming political as the President and the Senate Minority Leader (both New Yorkers) are attacking each other on Twitter.  Expectations for a roadmap on taxes has been pushed to tomorrow. Congress is having trouble getting the votes.  Tax cuts are critical to this rally.  The Fed concludes its 2-day meeting today, which could be one of the last for Janet Yellen as head of the Fed.  October was another positive month for stocks.  In fact, it was the best month since February.  When both September and October are higher, Q4 has ended positively over 80% of the time.  The DOW and S&P have been up in 7 consecutive months.  The S&P was up 2% in October while the DOW jumped 4%.  It has been a DOW driven rally this Fall, and the DOW saw the biggest monthly spread over the S&P since 2008.  This is a Bull Market.  Earnings Season continues.  Over 60% of S&P components have reported.  75% of them have beaten expectations.  Facebook, Symantec and Tesla report earnings after the close.  They will be Market moving.  Facebook had a particularly tough day on Capitol Hill regarding Russian involvement.  Crude oil continues to move higher as the global economy expands.  Energy stocks are having a good run and are sleepers for a catch-up play as they are under-owned and widely hated.  Interest rates are still not moving higher, suggesting there are some lingering issues that could derail this rally.  The Bond Market is the smartest money.  We pay close attention.  Buckle up and hang on for the ride.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier

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