Mike’s Morning Brief – September 12, 2018

What’s going on in the world…

Market opens flattish after a solid session of gains yesterday. This is a resilient Market we are operating within. There is tremendous confusion and risk, both real and perceived, which absolutely factors in the calculus of investment strategies. It seems to be a bit exacerbated with this week being the 10-year anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers and the day that Capitalism nearly broke. The moving parts keep moving while the S&P heads higher. Producer Prices fell for the first time in 18 months, which was definitely not expected. This suggests inflation is not the growing issue previously thought. The Dollar is lower in early trading, something that hasn’t happened much since February. Crude prices are higher, with back-to-back gains sending WTI above $70. Storms and production reductions are the reason. Hurricane Florence is 500 miles offshore and is expected to hit land in the Carolinas within 36 hours. Mother Nature has been angry with fires and storms and she is generally undefeated throughout her lifetime. Citizens on Planet Earth have to anticipate, act, react and adjust. Apple has a big product release coming from Cupertino. The biggest and most expensive iPhone ever is expected. Trade talks continue and Canada is apparently budging on Dairy to get a deal done. Double Line’s Jeff Gundlach always catches investor attention when he speaks, and was pretty clear in his fear of deficits and preference for Oil and Emerging Markets at this stage of the cycle. Brexit is getting more complicated with a group within the Prime Minister’s governing body reportedly trying to knock her out. Russia and China teamed up for war game drills yesterday. These are all headlines that are seriously concerning on the face of it, and seemingly threaten this Market and the general well being of the western world. The Market, however, just doesn’t seem to care. We are staying nimble.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier

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