Mike’s Morning Brief – September 26, 2018

What’s going on in the world…

Market opens in the green on this important Fed day. Another interest rate hike is a done deal. There is 100% probability that rates go higher. There is a 2.6% probability that a 50 bp hike occurs. What Chairman Powell says about the US economy and future monetary policy is what the Market will pay most attention to. The Market is now assigning an 83.9% probability of another rate hike in December. It was below 60% 2 months ago. Trade and foreign relations have been the theme at the United Nations General Assembly. Canada seems to be calling an American bluff. That’s a risky play but the trade war has brought unconventional behavior. The ECB came out with a study saying the US could be the ultimate loser in this trade war. President Trump will meet with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe later today. Nike reported a strong Qtr, beating on both the top and bottom line. Sales in China slowed a bit. The stock seems to be selling the news after a big run-up post the new Just Do It campaign launch. It’s Dream Force week in SF and SalesForce has captured the buzz of the city. Interest rates are flattish in early trading. Crude prices are taking a breather at 4-year highs. Biotech’s are catching a bid in early trading. There are just 3 trading days left in Q3.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier

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