The holiday season is officially here, bringing with it the joy of gathering and celebration. Gift-giving has long been a central part of this time of year, so over the Thanksgiving weekend, I took to the stores again to observe how the shopping season began. I have been doing this annually and reporting on my findings since my early years at the firm back in 2007. As you may recall, US consumer spending accounts for around 70% of US GDP, so staying informed about trends within the consumer sector is key.
Holiday spending for 2024 is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5%. The National Retail Federation forecasts that holiday sales during November and December to hit record highs. Thus far, early reports support this. Mastercard SpendingPulse indicates that total retail sales increased 3.4% on Black Friday this year compared to last year. They also report that online sales were up 14.6% while in-store sales were up only 0.7% compared to the prior year. Adobe Analytics indicates that Black Friday generated $10.8 Billion in online sales, up 10.2% from last year. The data supports what I noticed in my weekend outing: shoppers appear eager to take advantage of marquee sale days to maximize discounts, and in-store traffic was a bit sluggish. Adobe reports top-selling categories of jewelry, electronics and apparel.
I hit the sales over the holiday break for my traditional shopping adventure to get some first-hand data. The holiday sales started earlier this year – well before Thanksgiving week as retailers vied for wallet share of consumers. I looked forward to the day after Thanksgiving as the official start of the holiday shopping season.
As has been the case since the pandemic, most stores were closed on Thanksgiving and set to open dark and early on Friday morning. After a Thanksgiving Day of family and eating, I perused the circulars which, like so many other things, have moved away from print and are now mostly digital. In fact, this year, there was only 1 store circular in the SF Chronicle (Big 5 Sporting Goods) and 2 in the local Marin IJ (Big 5 Sporting Goods and Home Depot). I set my alarm for 4:30am. My 12-year-old daughter was eager to come along again this year, so off we went.
Our first stop was our local San Rafael Kohl’s, which opened at 5:00am. We pulled into the lot at 4:55am and parked among a handful of other vehicles. Kohl’s had scratch-off tickets for shoppers for prizes including a family trip to Orlando and Kohl’s Cash to use toward your purchases. Kohl’s clearly understood that you need to offer a little something extra to get shoppers in the door at 5am. We walked in promptly at the open with 8 other customers. Everyone got $5 Kohl’s cash on their scratcher except my lucky daughter who got $25. We strolled the store, which we had pretty much to ourselves for 45 minutes. Clothes were heavily discounted. We got some good deals on small novelty goods and sweatpants.
6am rang in Macy’s opening and this store is always a favorite of ours after watching the Macy’s Parade on Thanksgiving Day. Again, customers were very light. My daughter and I were joined by 2 of our friends at that point in our shopping, and the 4 of us were the only customers queued up with us as the doors were unlocked. When we strolled by the Women’s shoes department, we got a welcome surprise of $10 Macy’s promotional gift cards to be used toward purchases over the holiday weekend. If it was advertised, I must have missed it – a missed opportunity for a promotion, in my opinion, by the retailer, as these sorts of promotions can really drive traffic and capture consumer dollars early. Cosmetics and shoes were the most populated departments during our visit, but all were sparse. There were great deals on soft goods, including jackets, which we took advantage of, as well as pots and pans in the home department. Handbags and cosmetics were advertising deep discounts and promotions too. The Toys R Us branded toy department was well stocked but empty at that early hour. Macy’s, like many retailers, had begun Black Friday sales both in-store and online prior to Friday morning. When we left the store around 6:50am there were about 60 shoppers in the store.
Our next stop was Target around 7am. The lot was not full, but had at least 80 cars when we pulled in just as the sun was rising on the bay. We were greeted at the entrance with our driving reason for the stop: Taylor Swift Eras Tour exclusive items, including tour book. While not discounted, we were driven to grab a copy of this exclusive item. We were not alone as we saw another 6th-grade mom who shared she was there early for the same item. The in-store Starbucks was busy, and we partook to keep our energy going. Books, CDs and Records (they are making a comeback!) were discounted buy 2 get 1 free with very few exceptions. Books were popular items for us as well as other shoppers we talked with. Wicked themed items were well displayed and in demand.
At 8am we stopped at Best Buy. The electronics-focused store had the most shoppers per square foot. The Apple Store inside the store was busy and the staff we spoke to said it had been that way all morning. Televisions and audio systems were most in demand, and we saw a few carted out. As we headed toward the register, I couldn’t help but notice a long blue line of tape on the floor to mark the queue for customers. I asked an employee if it had been needed for early morning shoppers. He said there was no need for it this year or the past few in fact. More evidence that early morning in-person shoppers are a dwindling breed.
Our shopping tour took a short break for my son’s basketball game, but we went straight from the game to the Village Oaks shopping center in Novato. Traffic had picked up significantly and shoppers were plentiful, but there were still some parking spots in the large lot.
It was around 11am, as we entered Ulta. The beauty specialty store was busy with shoppers focused on skincare, perfume and mini-sets that were on special discounts. They also had a $5 for 5 deal on select small goods like nail files, lip glosses and hand lotion. Perfect for stocking stuffers!
Onward we went to Claire’s accessory boutique. The Black Friday deals included buy 3 get 3 free and earrings regularly $12.99 or less were $3.00. How could we resist. More great stocking stuffers and items for older nieces. See’s Candies was decked out with Christmas and Hanukkah products and had the best samples around. More sugar to fuel us as we filled our basket with chocolate Gelt and Christmas tree-shaped Scotchmallows. The deal of the day was a bag of chocolate-covered almonds and a tote bag for purchases over $65, which we hit with ease. Next, it was on to Old Navy, where jeans were being snapped up in both the adult and teen sections. This was one of the few stores that had a significant line of customers at the registers; it was about 12 people deep. The Loft women’s clothing store had a half-off-everything promo and there were about 20 shoppers actively perusing the store for this significant discount. Next door, cosmetic retailer Sephora was pushing beauty sets for 40-50% off. Lots of foot traffic there with a focus on skincare and makeup.
Around 1:30pm we headed to Costco. Holiday wreaths and Christmas décor were plentiful and filling cards in addition to the regular household staples. The best deal of the day was lunch for three hungry shoppers including dessert that totaled only $12. That is not even a sale, simply Costco’s standard low pricing. We weren’t the only hungry shoppers filling our bellies or carts. There was a steady stream of customers in and out of the store. Soft goods of clothing and holiday décor were the most popular sections. We fell into the Gap next, where insignia sweatshirts and shirts were deeply discounted and popular, as well as holiday sweaters.
Our final stop of the day was a 2:30pm visit to Nordstrom Rack, which was quite crowded predominately with women and teenage girls shopping. Shoes, women’s clothes and accessories were the most populated departments. After a long shopping day, my two helpers and I headed home laden with bags of presents for a well-deserved nap.
On Small Business Saturday, we traveled to San Anselmo for our annual spoiling of our dog at Dogville. They had a great display of holiday merchandise, as always, and we were not alone in grabbing treats for our furry family member, as several items were sold out. The specialty olive oil press, Amphora Nueva, had a great sale going and we participated, grabbing a few bottles. Vintage jewelry store Belinda Warwick was a hot spot for local shoppers seeking something unique. OCN Culture, a cute surf shop, had a small business sale going of a free beanie with purchases over $75. My daughter claimed the beanie as hers! We popped into our favorite café Comforts for lunch and a few gift cards, and they were busy, as were many other cafes in town. Of course, we wrapped up our day at my husband’s shop, Bananas at Large in San Rafael where drums, guitars and amplifiers were popular over the weekend.
Sunday brought more basketball, family time and travel back east. The airport was surprisingly orderly by the time I arrived at 7:30pm. Almost empty and flights were on time. I did notice a few people getting some holiday shopping done in the airport, but as I was traveling light, I just browsed the windows.
As I close, I’d like to dedicate this year’s holiday shopper report to two very special women who passed away this year and were true supporters of my work. My Aunt Jude Bedell, our founder, who always encouraged me to use my voice and share my hands-on research with our clients, and my Aunt Alice, whose love for the holidays was unmatched, and who wrote a beautiful holiday letter each year. Both are deeply missed this season, and they serve as a reminder that the essence of giving is to share love and thoughtfulness with those we hold dear.
This weekend marked a lively and enjoyable kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Here are my key takeaways:
- While festive shoppers are eager to get out and shop in person, they’re not necessarily inclined to start at 5 or 6 am.
- Retailers must offer strong incentives to encourage early-morning shoppers.
- Many shoppers are trading down this season, increasingly turning to discount retailers and seeing out deals.
- Online shopping continues to rise in popularity. This shift is now firmly established.
- Shopping in your local community not only feels good but also fosters a stronger sense of connection.
I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and a good start to the holiday season!
Meredith
