Monday – April 13, 2020

Market opens lower, but well off the overnight lows. OPEC+ finally made a deal, but it was for less than 10 million barrels per day cut, which is less than expected and only 1/3 of the demand destruction due to the virus. Most are calling it too little, too late. The price of Oil has been all over the place overnight, but is slightly higher around $23 at the open. The curve seems to be bending in certain areas in the US, namely in the Bay Area and NYC. The biggest challenge is balancing out the health crisis and the economic crisis. Saving people without killing the economy is a tightrope, which is becoming controversial, and unfortunately, political. May 1 is an important target to begin opening up the US Economy. It’s not far away, but it’s not clear whether the virus will have been controlled enough by then. There is no current national plan, which is part of the problem. The virus dictates the timing. Rumors are circulating again that the President does not like how Dr. Fauci is communicating the virus response. Gilead’s Remdesevir is showing some promising data in treating the virus. Apple and Google are huge rivals but are teaming together to provide analytics on “contact tracing” for users who might be exposed. It’s being reported that Bob Iger has taken back control of Disney during this crisis environment. Earnings Season begins this week with the Banks. The numbers are going to be bad, and the outlook is likely to be vague. But at least we will be able to see some facts. Housing is going to continue to be challenged as banks really tighten lending rules. After a massive move higher after the crash, stocks seem due for a breather and digestion. Asian equities mostly lower overnight with sharp declines in Japan and South Korea, followed by more moderate losses in mainland China and Taiwan. Most European markets closed for the holiday. We shall soon see. Expect the volatility to pick up again.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier

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