Monday – August 12, 2019

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Market opens with a downward bias again, as the situation in Hong Kong gets worse. The level and scope of protests have expanded. So has the violence. The Hong Kong airport, one of the busiest in the world, has been shut down. The situation poses a major threat to both China and the West. An argument can be made that the Hong Kong situation is much bigger than the Trade War. This could very well be the Black Swan. Global markets were mixed overnight. Japan and some other Asian markets were closed for a holiday. Europe is largely in the red. Surprisingly, China’s Shanghai Composite rallied.  The PBOC today set the yuan at a stronger rate than expected, 7.0211 to the Dollar, easing concerns of a quick devaluation after the U.S. last week officially declared China a currency manipulator. The positive turn didn’t extend to Europe or American markets, where stock index futures fell 0.5% after President Trump suggested that trade negotiations could break off. South Korea and Japan have built their own trade war. Interest rates keep sliding. I covered that topic extensively in Friday’s piece. Crude prices are slightly higher. Gold is higher. The Dollar is slightly lower. The Argentine Peso is plummeting. Keep those belts buckled.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier

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