Monday – March 30, 2020

Market opens in the green to start the new week. Social distancing has been extended throughout the country until May. That’s not much of a surprise. The President’s goal of opening the economy by Easter was never realistic. It is going to take time to return to back normal. If we do at all that is. This is all uncharted territory. Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that the coronavirus pandemic could cause 100-200K deaths in the US, but doesn’t want to be “held to the projection, when it’s such a moving target.” For comparison, the flu has killed 12K-61K Americans a year since 2010, according to CDC data. The US now has the largest number of COVID-19 cases worldwide at 143K, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins, while the US death toll stands at over 2,500. The curve has not yet flattened. It’s expected to take a few more weeks. Hopefully things can stabilize a bit, from a Market standpoint. This is the first Monday in a month there wasn’t a limit-down overnight. A massive recession is being priced in. The question is how bad and for how long. However, this will be set against an unprecedented stimulus response, from both the Fed and Congress. There appears to be no limit. Whatever it takes. It’s going to take a lot. Jobs have been cut. Incomes are going away. Revenues have evaporated. Rents won’t get paid. Mortgage payments will be delayed. Malls and restaurants are empty. The US Economy has experienced a shock like never before. It’s hard to look past the crisis. But we have to. We have to deal with the present while looking out to the future. Yogi was right. The future ain’t what it used to be…

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier

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