Monday – October 28, 2019

By October 28, 2019 Dark and Early

Market opens higher, with the S&P hitting a fresh new high. Stocks are rising with optimism of better than expected earnings, more positive movement on trade and a Fed that will continue to provide support. This is the busiest week for earnings, so we will see soon enough, but thus far earnings have been less bad. Talks between the US and China continue, and the phase 1 deal, which really isn’t much of a deal, is expected to be signed next month. Most importantly, the Fed meets this week and is expected to cut interest rates, with a 94% probability assigned by the Market. This, despite the US Economy growing, the unemployment rate at 5-decade lows and the Stock Market at all-time highs. This is normally a time for rate hikes. These are not normal times. Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed over the weekend by American soldiers. This is a major feat, taking the life of the ISIS leader. Where this goes, we shall see. It could weaken them. It could also create a spark of inspiration and rise with al-Baghdadi as a martyr. The Brexit can got kicked to January. Stocks are up. Bonds are down. Interest rates tick higher, while Gold and the Dollar lower. It doesn’t feel like a euphoric environment despite this Bull Market milestone of all-time highs.

Have a great morning,

Mike Frazier