Mike’s Morning Brief – August 3, 2016

Market opened flattish, with the DOW now closing down 7 consecutive days.  Stocks still remain just off all-time highs from the July rally.  This has not been a selloff, it feels more like a lack of buyers.  The overbought condition heading to August continues to stall.  Earnings season is wrapping up.  The ADP report came in solid, and suggests a strong job number Friday.  Central banks continue to play a role in the global economy, for better or worse.  Solid economic data in the US is supporting a Fed rate hike by year’s end, while struggles overseas gets more aggressive treatment.  The Presidential campaign trail is full of constant drama, and more should be expected for the next 3 months leading to November.  Crude closed below $40 for the first time in months.  That’s triggering concerns that plagued the Markets early in the year.  The Dollar is stronger while Gold is weaker in early trading.  Interest rates are flat, with the 10-Year Treasury yield still stuck at 1.5%.  We have hit the seasonal slow patch on the calendar, which traditionally sees a selloff begin in August, get worse in September, and hit a bottom in October which sets up a year-end rally. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  2016 has been anything but traditional….

Mike

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