For those of you who would prefer to listen:
Deal or no deal? The ceasefire is on or off? Or, as one of our Washington sources framed it: Ceasefire in Name Only. The situation is beyond confusing. The conflict in Iran has been head-spinning, and the price of Oil has reflected the volatile news flow. WTI fell below the $100 level. But it remains elevated in the mid $90s. The December contract is holding pretty firm just below $80. That suggests supplies should improve towards year-end. But that isn’t helping prices at the pump, which are north of $6 in many California cities. High prices continue to take a toll on the American Consumer. The price of Oil was $55 just before the conflict.
The Market has been looking past the conflict for weeks now. It keeps setting fresh all-time highs. In fact, there have been 15 record highs in 2026, the most recent being today. The Market is all Bulled-up. History suggests the strength will continue. Record highs have rarely been one-off events. Over 70% of all-time highs have occurred within 5 days of the prior one. Intuitively, this makes sense. A prerequisite for making a new high is already being in record territory. All-time highs are rarely a Bearish signal on their own.
The clear driver has been one of the strongest Earnings Seasons on record. With over 80% of S&P companies now reported, earnings have grown 27% compared to last year. That’s twice as fast as expected. Tech continues to be the engine. The Tech-heavy NAS stocks have increased earnings by 45%. The Tech Titans have grown earnings over 60%. It’s just remarkable growth. But there’s also this: The record rally off the March lows has been the most concentrated in recorded history. Just 5 Tech stocks accounted for over half the S&P 500 gains. They are Google, Amazon, Broadcom, Nvidia and Apple. Those are Tech Titans. Their earnings power has been explosive.
Volatility has been high. However, the Stock Market has basically moved in one direction since March: straight up. Fear has subsided quite a bit. But it has not vanished. Despite the Bullish run, investor sentiment is nowhere near exuberant. The price action might rival the Dot-com days, but investor attitude does not. Record highs have generally occurred when the Volatility Index (VIX) was below 15. The average VIX across these 2026 record highs has been north of 17.5. The VIX hit 30 during the March correction. Steep price declines tend to trigger fear. Steep price increases tend to trigger euphoria. There’s not a lot of investor euphoria today, outside of some semiconductor stocks leading the AI trade.
To be clear, this is not an extreme difference on the VIX from previous record highs. But it does suggest the Market is benefiting from the massive earnings momentum, while not fully discounting the geopolitical risks. This is logical and somewhat healthy. The Market is still pricing in some degree of risk, even if it’s more minor than you’d imagine. Sentiment is nowhere near complacency as it had been in recent years after rallies.
Despite the Market’s chief focus on earnings, the conflict in Iran still matters. It matters big time. The Global Economy is being held hostage of sorts with reduced energy supplies and higher prices. Europe and Asia are feeling it the most. The clock is ticking, and Iran has a long track record of stalling. Our Washington sources don’t see a quick end to this conflict. But there’s an event next week which will be major. President Trump is scheduled to visit China. The President most likely wants some sort of deal in place before he meets with President Xi in Beijing. China is believed to be providing assistance to Tehran in the conflict. The 2 nations are strong trading partners. China buys most of Iran’s Oil.
It’s been reported that Iran is ramping up rail trade with China to counter the US blockade in the Persian Gulf. According to our sources, cargo trains from Xi’an to Tehran now run every 3 days, up from roughly once a week before the conflict. There have also been reports that a key company behind Thailand’s national AI effort has been smuggling Billions of Dollars’ worth of servers with advanced Nvidia chips to China. These are considered national security risks and are banned to China. There is plenty to discuss in Beijing next week, the first by a sitting US president in almost a decade. The big question is whether anything gets resolved. Cold wars and hot wars are spanning the globe. The Market will be watching closely.
Planet Earth lost another good one this week. His name was Robert E. Turner. He was better known as Ted. He also earned nicknames “Captain Courageous” and “The Mouth of the South”. Ted Turner was a maverick. He is essentially the Godfather of Cable. This one hits personal. Ted Turner was my first boss.
Ted Turner took over his father’s outdoor advertising business at age 24. His dad committed suicide. He later bought local Atlanta TV station, channel 17. He made it a superstation, the first of its kind. It became the Turner Broadcasting System, TBS. Needing content to televise, he bought the struggling Atlanta Braves and sent the signal via satellite to cable operators across the country. Baseball fans across the country could watch the games all Summer. Reaching those in so many states that didn’t have a local team made the Braves America’s Team. The Braves won their first World Series, my first year in Atlanta, in 1995. It was the city’s first-ever national championship.
Ted Turner had another idea about content. He liked old movies and knew others did too. So he bought MGM’s library of films and invented Turner Classic Movies to play them on cable. Ted Turner was a risk-seeker and a risk-taker. He flirted with bankruptcy a couple of times. He took big swings and won more than he lost. One of his greatest achievements was being captain of the winning boat in the 1977 America’s Cup. He laughed in one of the meetings I attended that he was too drunk to finish his victory speech on live TV. I remember seeing him on a Sunday evening at the CNN Center. He was looking at the trophy on display. I’ll never forget the Billionaire mogul wearing an old flannel shirt, faded jeans and a pair of running shoes with “shoe-goo”. For those of you who don’t know what that is, look it up. The man could afford anything he wanted. But he patched his own shoes. Ted Turner was unpretentious and a whole lot of authentic. I so admire him for that.
Always seeking peace and unity, Ted Turner created the Goodwill Games. He did it as a direct response to the political tensions and consecutive boycotts of the 1980 Olympics in Moscow and the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles. The inaugural Goodwill Games were held in Moscow in 1986. Many of the greatest Olympic athletes participated. World records were set. I worked the 1998 Games in New York City. Competing were the likes of Michael Johnson, Jackie Joyner-Kersee, Jenny Thompson and Michelle Kwan. I was able to broadcast some of my buddies who played water polo at Cal. Due to financial losses and lower ratings, the Goodwill Games were discontinued in 2001. But Ted Turner and the Goodwill Games left a mark, and no doubt influenced the end of the Cold War.
Beyond everything else, it was his 24-hour news channel that he created from scratch that was Ted Turner’s greatest achievement. In 1980, he launched the Cable News Network, more commonly known as CNN. He saw what few others did. He was willing to do what even fewer would. Ted wasn’t looking for celebrity anchors or sensationalized political rhetoric. Ted wanted to educate the global audience so that they could be better informed about what was going on around the world. In Ted’s mind, the news was the star. And he said CNN would be on 24/7 until the world ends.
What solidified CNN was the Gulf War in 1991. For the first time in history, a war was carried live on television. CNN had reporters inside Iraq, unlike anyone else. Ratings surged. The Cable News Network became a staple across the globe. CNN became synonymous with breaking news. Every other network followed.
So much has changed over the decades. Ted Turner’s influence was minimized when Time Warner merged with AOL. Ted was not a fan of that deal. But it was all about capturing eyeballs back then, not necessarily quality programming. Cable news has become breeding grounds for political warfare and hyperbole. I don’t even recognize it anymore. Social media is even worse. Anonymity and inauthenticity have crushed the media world. Trust has been broken.
CNN was my first job out of Cal. I started off working in PR on the newsroom floor. That’s where I was first exposed professionally to the Macro Economy. I later transitioned to Turner Sports, where I helped broadcast Braves baseball, the NFL on TNT and the NBA on TBS. I even worked the Olympic Games in Nagano, Japan. It was an experience of a lifetime and a dream job for a 20-something. I learned so much. Ted Turner is my idol.
Ted Turner stood for good. He was just really eccentric in how he did it. Many thought he was crazy. Most geniuses are. Ted Turner donated $1 Billion to the United Nations. It was the largest gift in history at the time. He established the UN Foundation and encouraged other business leaders to contribute with peace-building being the objective. Ted Turner was a visionary. He was a pioneer. He was a job creator. Ted believed in America and understood that capitalism works best when the winners show respect and appreciation for their fellow citizens. Hopefully, the leaders of the Tech Titans understand this and follow Ted’s lead. Education is the best medicine. The world could use more Ted Turners today.
I’ll leave you with some sage words Ted Turner said at every meeting I attended:
“Early to bed, early to rise, work like hell, and advertise.”
That always brought smiles. He’ll be missed.
Have a nice weekend. Happy Mother’s Day to all you fantastic moms! We’ll be back, dark and early on Monday.
Mike
