The Holiday Season is officially underway. This time of year includes family gatherings, celebration and of course gift-giving. For nearly two decades, I have marked this time of year with my own tradition, heading out over Thanksgiving weekend to observe the consumer in action and report back on what I see. With US consumer spending making up roughly 70% of GDP, tracking these trends offers insight into the state of the consumer and the broader economy.
Early indicators suggest a strong season. The National Retail Federation set expectations for the largest number of shoppers ever with 187 Million people planning to shop from Thanksgiving Day through today (Cyber Monday). This is up about 3 Million people from the previous record set last year. With a record number of shoppers expected, retailers were preparing to meet the needs of consumers with value and convenience. Shopping local was on the minds of consumers as they set their intentions, with 80% of those planning on shopping Saturday saying that they were considering shopping locally on Small Business Saturday to support the local economy. Adobe’s Holiday Shopping Trends report this morning indicates that Americans spent $11.7 Billion on Black Friday this year, an 8% increase over last year. Online sales continue to be popular with an expected 6% rise this year over last, based on a report from Salesforce. AI is also getting in on the holiday game as an increasing number of shoppers are asking AI tools for gift ideas as well as shopping locations.
Shoppers are willing and want to buy gifts despite overall weak consumer sentiment. Retailers began rolling out holiday promotions even earlier this season to seek out dollars from deal-seekers. Competition has been intense this year. While I once relied on newspaper circulars to map out my route, those days are gone. Instead, my inbox, social media feeds and online ads delivered a barrage of sales information. In fact, it was at our Thanksgiving dinner table that a guest mentioned a Target promotion she spotted on TikTok.
So, with a 5am alarm and my enthusiastic 13-year old daughter joining me, we set out to see how the 2025 holiday shopping season is shaping up.
Our first stop was our local San Rafael Target which was set to open at 6am. Target was running a promo for the first 100 shoppers, which included a tote bag and a goodie inside, as well as a chance to win 1 of 10 other prizes. This promo clearly works as there were about 75 shoppers queued up before doors opened. We waited in line for 20 minutes before the store opened, talking with fellow shoppers who had already stocked up on lots of online deals. The Target team was welcoming customers with mini Starbucks drinks and cookies. A festive kickoff. Doorbuster deals included 50% off pajamas, sweats, board games and specialty items, including Stranger Things and anything Wicked themed. We checked out at about 6:45 using our new silver reusable shopping bags. The swag bag included a full-size deck of Uno cards, nail polish by elf, along with some beauty samples and candy. From what I have seen online, some customers have been giving Target bad press over the goodie bag, but given our realistic expectations from reading the ad, we were happy. Many retailers have struggled to get shoppers in the door of brick-and-mortar stores – the Target promo did this.
7am saw us walking into Macy’s which was sparsely populated. This store is always a favorite of ours after watching the Macy’s Parade on Thanksgiving Day. While sales were plentiful, especially on jewelry, cashmere sweaters and shoes, there were not very many shoppers. Store associates reported that it had been a slow morning thus far. The Toys “R” Us section was vacant, as were the furniture and home departments. We did find a few goodies and were rewarded with a free tote bag for our purchase of over $100. Last year this Macy’s had given out $10 gift cards to the first 100 customers; however, the associate I spoke with said they didn’t do that this year.
Next we visited HomeGoods, which had only about 10 other customers based on our count and no specific Black Friday sales, just their usual discounted goods.
After a break for breakfast followed by two basketball games we headed back out to Village Oaks shopping center in Novato. Our first stop was Costco where, at 1pm, shoppers were plentiful, snatching up live fir Christmas trees for $75 as well as lots of toys, candies and other holiday goods. Shoppers were festive and carts were filled with holiday items instead of the usual paper goods.
Nordstrom Rack was the busiest of all stores we visited on Friday. They had additional discounts on top of their already low prices, including pajamas, outerwear, accessories, and more. Soft goods, including clothing were big sellers, especially those with bows, which appear to be in fashion right now.
The Gap was bustling with families when we arrived around 2pm. Discounts were deep on sweatshirts, flannels, and wide-legged sweatpants. Staples like long-sleeve tees and thermals were also deeply discounted and found their way into my basket. The Loft had 50% off the entire store as well as some specials of even deeper discounts. There were plenty of women who appeared to be shopping for themselves after they had shopped for others earlier in the day.
Make-up merchant Sephora was jumping when we entered and were greeted by their friendly staff, who were happy to show my daughter and me around all of the specials, including some lines at 50% off. The level of customer service was highest at this store compared to all others we visited. It made a difference and helped us pick out 2 items we otherwise would not have purchased. Friendly and knowledgeable staff made an impact.
Next, it was time for a treat, so we headed to See’s Candies. One of our favorite stops. It is our tradition to get our annual gelt for dreidel playing here and some treats for special family members. Of course, a sample for ourselves was welcome too!
After dinner, the stores called to us again. We headed to Corte Madera to visit the Village shopping center. We walked the length of stores, stopping in Abercrombie and Fitch, the Apple Store, Lululemon, Anthropology and Nordstrom’s. We found the most shoppers in Lululemon and Abercrombie and Fitch. Abercrombie and Fitch had many denim items on sale and Lululemon, despite it being 8pm, had a queue of 12 people at the checkout and every fitting room was occupied. Sales seemed rather tame from a discount standpoint, but clearly demand was there. The Apple Store was routinely transacting with customers – Black Friday is a rare day in which Apple has a promotion – Apple gift cards for qualifying purchases of iPhone 16 and iPads. ALO also had high demand and a security guard as well as two associates manning the door. At Nordstrom’s, shoes were the most popular department followed by women’s clothing. We capped off the evening swinging through Williams Sonoma for our annual box of peppermint bark!
Small Business Saturday found us strolling the main street in San Anselmo. There was a pop-up artisan stand of knitwear with colorful display. We also visited our favorite olive oil shop Amphora Nueva, taking advantage of their annual discount and of course Dogville for the annual spoiling of our dog Roscoe. We loaded up on treats and ordered a dog bed for him as we conversed with the friendly owner running the shop. Many shops were not yet open at 11:30am, so we will have to return to this local area again later in the season!
After another interruption of kids’ basketball games, we were back out shopping small in our hometown of San Rafael. Copperfields Books was promoting a graduated discount – the more you spend the higher percentage tier you save. T&B sports promoted 20% off all items and Gamescape was handing out free stickers to kids in addition to 20% off. Families were strolling downtown ahead of the tree lighting on this chilly Saturday evening. Our final stop of the day was my husband’s shop, Bananas at Large. He reported to me that sales were higher on Friday than Saturday, and that guitars and accessories were top sellers of the day.
Sunday found us at the Town Center mall in Corte Madera at around 11am. Stores were just starting to open and the busiest was Crate and Barrel where sales were roughly 20 to 30% off sticker price and holiday cheer was in full swing. I couldn’t resist buying a gift for my mom and sister and a matching one for me. Next we went to Urban Outfitters which was full of teens and tweens just as it has been since my childhood. Discounts were plentiful and shoppers were taking advantage. Small business was represented at this mall too, and we partook, getting some T-shirts and mugs from a Marin County artist. There were not many shoppers milling around as we wrapped up our weekend shopping adventure at 1pm.
Today is Cyber Monday, which is the largest online shopping day of the year. It is expected that 74 Million shoppers will make an online purchase today – that is 40% of the US population. Incredible! Retailers are pushing sales today. We will be tracking the results.
This weekend marked an exciting and enjoyable kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Here are my key takeaways:
- While festive shoppers are eager to get out and shop in person, they’re not necessarily inclined to start at 5 or 6am.
- Retailers must offer strong incentives to encourage early-morning shoppers. More did so this year than last based on my experience and reviews online.
- Online shopping continues to take market share from brick-and-mortar stores.
- Shopping locally not only feels good but also deepens your connection to the community!
I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and a good start to the holiday season!
Meredith
